Consumer confidence jumps to 91.7, but the long-term trend is still down, Conference Board says
The Conference Board's index rose 7.5 points to 91.7, well above the 81.0 economists expected, per investingLive. The figures are preliminary, and September was revised up.
By James Mitchell ·
Why it matters: Consumers told the Conference Board they plan to spend less on services and durable goods over the next six months, and their average 12-month inflation expectation was 5.8%.
For information only, not investment advice.
Americans felt a good deal better about the economy in October. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7, up from 84.2 in September, the group said Tuesday. Economists had expected 81.0, investingLive reported, and ZeroHedge called it the biggest beat since May 2025.
Two caveats before anyone pops a cork. The October numbers are preliminary, from a survey that ran October 1 to 21. And the rebound starts from a revised base: September was first reported at 81.9 and revised up to 84.2, according to investingLive, which said September's reading had been the lowest since 2014.
Both halves of the index improved. The Present Situation Index rose 8.6 points to 120.4, and the Expectations Index climbed 6.9 points to 72.6, only partly reversing three straight monthly declines. That still leaves expectations under 80, a level the Conference Board has flagged as a historical signal of recession ahead, investingLive noted.
Fergus McCormick, the Conference Board's senior economist for global indicators, pointed to the gas pump. "The recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October." He also offered some perspective: "Yet, despite the increase in October, consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years."
For your wallet, the details are less cheerful than the headline. Consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months, which McCormick said likely reflected higher prices and persistent inflation. Average 12-month inflation expectations fell but stayed elevated at 5.8%, and more consumers expected stock prices to rise than fall over the next year, the Conference Board said.
Sources
- US Consumer Confidence Increased in October, The Conference Board
- October US consumer confidence 91.7 vs 81.0 expected, investingLive
- Americans' Consumer Confidence Rebounded Dramatically Off COVID Lows In October, ZeroHedge
Tags: retail-consumer · inflation